Real-World Uplift Modelling with Significance-Based Uplift Trees
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Abstract
This paper seeks to document the current state of the art in
'uplift modelling'—the practice of modelling
the change in behaviour that results directly from a specified
treatment such as a marketing intervention.
We include details of the
Significance-Based Uplift Trees that have
formed the core of the only packaged uplift modelling software currently
available.
The paper includes a summary of some of the results that have
been delivered using uplift modelling in practice, with examples drawn
from demand-stimulation and customer-retention applications.
It also surveys and discusses approaches to each of the major stages
involved in uplift modelling—variable selection, model construction,
quality measures and post-campaign evaluation—all of which
require different approaches from traditional response modelling.






